How to face the future?: A model for scenario planning at VLC (Volvo Logistics Corporation)

In this project a model for logistics activities at Volvo Logistics Corporation, VLC, in the future has been built. The research is part of a project called Vision 2015 & Beyond, which began in the beginning of 2006, and concentrates on what changes in the business environment that VLC as a TPL provider faces in the future. Within the scope of this project threats in the business environment as well as internal issues which are regarded as concerns for the future are identified. The already recognized threats are complemented and researched by the experts and further structured into a model in this project. The model shall be utilized as a tool in scenario planning within VLC. As to guide the practitioners in making use of the model a manual that explains the making of the model and how it will be used. The model is modified to VLC’s activities within the automotive industry and their directives have continuously been taken into consideration, resulting in a model specific for VLC. Theories in scenario planning and modelling has been adjusted as to construct the model, and for that reason this 4 types of components has been determined as to constituting in the model. Those components are; targets, scenario agenda, variables and driving forces. The entire process of identifying the different components was carried out step by step, starting with the targets…

Contents: Scenario Planning at VLC (Volvo Logistics Corporation)

1.1 Background
1.2 Purpose
1.3 Directives
1.4 Methodology approach
2.1 VLC
2.2 Vision 2015 & Beyond
2.2.1 Infrastructure
2.2.2 Supply Chain Development
2.2.3 Transport Development
2.2.4 Customers Business Concept
2.2.5 Competence
2.3 Automotive industry
3.1 TPL
3.1.1 What do customers want?
3.1.2 Branch, market and future
3.2 Key performance indicators
3.3 Modelling
3.3.1 Different types of models
3.3.2 Constructing model
3.3.3 Questioning the model
3.4 Scenario planning
3.4.1 Scenario features
3.4.2 Scenario projects’ focus and purpose
3.4.3 Scenario project process
3.4.4 TAIDA – a model for scenario planning
3.4.5 Figuring scenarios
3.5 PEST-analysis
3.6 Porter’s five forces of competition
4.1 Assignment definition
4.2 Scope
4.3 System approach
4.4 The studied system
4.4.1 Studied system – Create model
4.4.2 Studied system – Mini-scenario case
5.1 Planning stage
5.1.1 Developing the problem
5.1.2 Choice of study direction
5.1.3 Choice of study approach
5.1.4 Establishment of Assignment decomposition
5.1.5 Sources of error in the Planning stage
5.2 Performing stage
5.2.1 Data collection
5.2.2 Sources of error in the Performing stage
5.3 Completion stage
5.3.1 Model completion and report writing
5.3.2 Sources of error in the Completion stage
5.4 Quality of research design
6.1 Steps in Create model
6.2 VLC Today
6.3 Identify targets
6.4 Set up external and internal scenario agenda
6.5 Variables and driving forces
6.6 Modelling
6.7 Questioning the model
7.1 Identification of targets
7.2 The external scenario agenda
7.3 External variables and driving forces
7.3.1 Why does OEMs behave as they do?
7.3.2 Which legislations have an impact on VLC?
7.3.3 What creates congestions?
7.3.4 What changes the fuel policy?
7.3.5 What does the external competition look like?
7.4 External modelling
7.4.1 Connections in the network
7.4.2 Connections to targets
7.5 The internal scenario agenda
7.6 Internal variables and driving forces
7.6.1 What affect VLC’s presence?
7.6.2 What affect VLC’s competence?
7.6.3 What affect VLC’s business concept?
7.6.4 What affect VLC’s competitiveness?
7.7 Internal modelling
7.7.1 Connections in the network
7.7.2 Connections to targets
8.1 Focus and purpose with model
8.2 Porter’s five forces identified in the model…

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