The Economics of Nuclear Power

We extend economic analysis of the nuclear power industry by developing and employing three tools. They are 1) compilation and unification of operating and accounting data sets for plants and sites, 2) an abstract industry model with major economic agents and features, and 3)…

Contents

1 Introduction
Economics and Regulation of U.S. Nuclear Power
2 A Static Approach
2.1 Introduction
2.1.1 Economics of the American Nuclear Power Industry
2.1.2 Layout of this paper
2.2 The Model
2.2.1 Timing
2.2.2 Denitions
2.2.3 Industry Regulators
2.2.4 The Social Planning Problem
2.2.5 The Case of Liability Only
2.2.6 The Case of Regulation Only
2.2.7 Liability and Regulation
2.3 Propositions
2.3.1 Proposition 1:
2.3.2 Proposition 2
2.3.3 Proposition 3
2.3.4 Proposition 4
2.3.5 Summary
2.4 Applications
2.4.1 A Fall in Excess Demand
2.4.2 Increased Aversion to Losses
2.4.3 Increasing Maintenance Expenditures
2.4.4 Exit Costs
2.4.5 Liability Levels
2.4.6 Implicit Subsidies
2.4.7 Social Welfare Under Liability Caps
2.5 Conclusions
3 Price Anderson Liability Limits
3.1 Introduction
3.2 The Dubin-Rothwell-Heyes-Heyes Model
3.3 Alternative Models
3.4 Conclusion
3.5 Appendix
4 A Dynamic Programming Approach
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 Layout of this paper
4.2 The Model
4.2.1 Timing
4.2.2 Denitions
4.2.3 Industry Regulators
4.2.4 Social Planners
4.2.5 Liability Only
4.2.6 Regulation Only
4.2.7 Liability and Regulation
4.3 Implicit Subsidies
4.4 Political Economy
4.5 Conclusion
5 A Numerical Model of Nuclear Power Plant Operations
5.1 Introduction
5.1.1 Layout of this paper
5.2 The Model
5.2.1 The Temporal Structure
5.2.2 Denitions
5.2.3 The Firms
5.2.4 The Insurance Company
5.2.5 The Consumers and Social Welfare
5.3 Numerical Results
5.3.1 Calibration
5.3.2 Simulations
5.4 Applications
5.4.1 Structural Shifts in Prices
5.4.2 Operating License Extensions
5.5 Conclusions
5.6 Appendix
5.6.1 Introduction
5.6.2 Denition of the Problem
5.6.3 The Expected Value of f (x)
5.6.4 Ecient Computation of Moment Integrals
5.6.5 Estimation of E [f (x)] for x ∼ N (µ, σ)
5.6.6 A Dynamic Programming Application
5.6.7 Evaluation
6 Conclusion for Part 1
II U.S. Nuclear Power Plant Operators
7 Introduction to Part II
8 Price and Demand Data
8.1 Price Data
8.1.1 U.S. Electricity Prices
8.1.2 Regional Electricity Prices
8.2 Electricity Demand
8.3 Conclusion
9 Operations and Financial Data
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Operating Data
9.2.1 Introduction
9.2.2 Reliability and Performance
9.3 Cost Data
9.3.1 Operating and Maintenance Costs
9.3.2 Fuel Costs
9.3.3 Capital Additions Costs
9.4 Revenue
9.5 Prots
9.6 Decommissioning Costs
9.7 Conclusions
9.8 Appendix
9.8.1 Decommissioned Reactors
10 A Model of Plant Operations
10.1 Introduction
10.1.1 Background: The Rust-Rothwell Model
10.2 Features and Contributions
10.2.1 Data Extensions
10.2.2 Stochastic Prices
10.2.3 Accounting for Physical Risk and Liability Caps
10.3 The Model
10.4 Model Results
10.4.1 First-Stage Estimation Results
10.4.2 Second-Stage Estimation Results
10.4.3 Goodness of Fit
10.4.4 Structural Stability Test Results
10.5 Extensions and Applications
10.5.1 60 Year Operating Licenses
10.5.2 Risk and Liability
10.5.3 Simulations and Forecasts
10.6 Regulatory Factors
10.6.1 Investment
10.6.2 Short-Run vs. Long-Run Prots
10.6.3 Exit Decisions
10.7 Possibilities for Future Work
10.7.1 Electricity Supply
10.7.2 Optimal Closures
10.7.3 Incorporation of Financial Data
10.7.4 Investment and Learning
10.8 Conclusions
11 Conclusions
11.1 Conclusions
11.1.1 What We Did
11.1.2 What We Concluded
11.1.3 What Is Next?
12 Appendix
12.1 Software
Bibliography

Author: Horst, Ronald L

Source: University of Maryland

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