This report compares the search for structural breaks in Sweden’s GDP carried out with X-11 seasonally altered data, with seasonally unadjusted data, and with temporally aggregated data. A structural break (in 1980) can be found just in the X-11 adjusted data, it’s credible to deduce that this break is a result of data distortions (specifically, distortions due to the use of the filter). Having said that, this interpretation is only possible a posteriori: had the seasonally unadjusted data not been available, the break found in the adjusted series could be just as well viewed as a break in the economy and not as a break in the data. The analysis signifies that seasonally adjusted data shouldn’t be utilized when the unadjusted version is also available…
Three econometricians get the task of examining whether the changes and events occurred in the Swedish economy after 1980 are reflected in major structural breaks in Sweden’s gross domestic product (GDP). To execute this job, each econometrician is required to adhere to a procedure. One of the three econometricians is given a series of quarterly GDP already seasonally adjusted…
Source: Stockholm School of Economics
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